Trump’s Situation Just Got Worse: North Carolina is Now a Toss-Up
What was once a lean Republican state is now anyone’s to claim
What was once a lean Republican state is now anyone’s to claim

Donald Trump’s bad campaign just got worse. North Carolina, which UVA’s Center for Politics had previously rated as leaning Republican, has officially shifted into a tossup, dropping the former President’s presumed electoral count from 235 to 219. The Harris campaign, by contrast, has a presumed electoral count of 226, officially recognizing a slight advantage for Vice-President Kamala Harris.
A Red Race Turning Blue
As my readers know, Harris’ entry into the race has significantly shifted the electoral calculus, effectively eliminating Trump’s edge. A little over a month ago, former President Trump successfully pushed the incumbent President Joe Biden back. However, with Harris’ entry into the race on July 21 st, the previously reluctant public turned against the former President and has seemingly coalesced around the Vice-President. As I noted in a recent piece about the Trump campaign’s floundering momentum:
“Trump is not merely losing ground in the states he needs to deny Harris to win; he is losing ground that he simply can’t afford to lose. A recent Cook Political Report survey has shown Trump bleeding even more support, both in the environment of a head-to-head race and in a three-way race with RFK JR. In the seven key states that Cook surveyed, Trump led in only 1 state. Harris led in 5, with Georgia being a tie in both versions of the race. Trump needs to turn the race around, or his last chance at the Presidency could turn to ash.” — Conor Kelly, Donald Trump is in Trouble: The Race So Far, August 16th, 2024.
To say Trump has lost his edge and may likely continue to lose it is a vast understatement. In just 4 days since I wrote those words, Harris has tied with Trump in Arizona in The New York Times polling averages and put up a strong challenge in Georgia. Granted, if Harris were to win Georgia based on the NYT’s polling averages, she would need Kennedy to appear on the ballot there.
What Does North Carolina’s Shift Mean?
North Carolina’s shift into a toss-up state is not simply a matter of categorization. Rather, it is a sign of a larger shift away from Trump. Biden himself, who beat Trump handily in 2020, with 306 electoral votes to the former President’s 232, failed to capture North Carolina, and not since Obama’s run in 2008 has a Democrat won the state. In many ways, North Carolina is the swing state that got away from the Democrats in 2020, but now the momentum has not only shifted but could make history. The Hill HQ’s polling averages show Harris leading Trump by 0.5 percent, a sign of momentum not yet fully developed.
That said, Polling averages only mean so much. They are meant to capture long-term momentum and overall polling considerations and take time to update and evaluate. Just because a polling average says a candidate is leading doesn’t mean that said averages represent a larger momentum.
However, if a larger sampling of likely voters and differences in support consistently show; and the data shows that support exists outside the margin of error, then there is evidence of momentum.
In that sense, Harris is seeing an advantage develop in North Carolina. The most recent polling shows Harris leading Trump slightly in North Carolina, though well within the margin of error. Additional polling shows Harris leading Trump by 3 percent, 49 to 46 percent. While it is still too early to say for certain, and new polls will be needed to confirm a long-term shift for Harris, one thing is clear: Trump is no longer leading in North Carolina.
How North Carolina Impacts the Election
In a previous video, I mentioned how I thought the states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania would be key to Harris’s chances of winning the election. I stand by that. However, with the recent shifts in the way of the election, Harris’s chances may have improved to such an extent that she could either see a boost in her electoral count comparable to Biden’s 306 in 2020 or see states like Arizona and North Carolina as a backup if she loses Pennsylvania. It is worth noting, however, that Harris has consistently led Trump in multiple polls evaluated by the New York Times and currently is tied with the former President in their averages. If the averages account for Kennedy’s presence, Harris leads by 1 point. So, she is far from guaranteed to lose this competitive state.
Still, if she loses Pennsylvania and Trump manages to hold onto Nevada, Georgia, and South Carolina, it would protect Harris and give her 278 electoral votes to Trump’s 260. Just 8 more than she needs to become President. Again, it is still too close to call this election. There are a little over 2 months to go, and Trump could still find his footing and find a way to push back on Harris’ momentum, but as it stands right now, the change in North Carolina shows that Trump hasn’t done that and if he wants to have any chances at winning a second term, he has to do so soon.
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Originally published at http://theprogressiveamerican.com on August 20, 2024.