The Republican Effort to Undermine A Harris Victory Falls Short
An effort to turn Nebraska into a winner-take-all state has been halted. Here’s what that means and what could have happened
An effort to turn Nebraska into a winner-take-all state has been halted. Here’s what that means and what could have happened

A Republican effort to alter the electoral college to help former President Donald Trump has fallen apart. Republican operatives were seemingly frustrated with Joe Biden’s victory in 2020. They proposed a new rule to Nebraska’s allocation of its electoral votes. If this rule had been applied, Nebraska, which has gone for Republicans since 1964, would have all of its electoral votes going to the winner of that state. Thankfully, Republican Governor Jim Pillen announced yesterday that the proposed change didn’t meet the requirement under the state’s constitution. If they had succeeded, however, the election would have been seriously changed. Here’s how.
Why Nebraska?
While most states are winner-take-all, meaning that all the electoral votes are given to the victor of that state’s popular vote, a few states split their votes. Two states, Maine and Nebraska, are the only states in the country to split said votes, effectively tying their electoral votes to the popular will of their electorate. The result is a much more competitive and sometimes tight fight for as much of the electoral votes in these given states.
Previously, Democrats won Maine, and Republicans won Nebraska, with the loser in both states gaining 1 electoral vote. Where normally one party would gain all of the electoral votes in these states, the split vote makes it so that even a loss can still help a candidate get closer to 270 electoral votes and, by extension, the presidency.
As such, each party wants to ensure that they can secure all of the votes in a given state. With Republicans in no position to change Maine’s laws, Republican operatives hoped to work in Nebraska to stack the deck.
What if They Succeeded?
In order to understand what is now only a hypothetical scenario that the GOP altered Nebraska’s electoral vote distribution, one must look to previous elections and the larger electoral map for the 2024 election. Doing so allows for an understanding of not only the previous elections, but how the electoral college is organized. Through this understanding, it becomes clear how changes in the Electoral College can impact future elections.
When we look at the 2020 election, specifically in its results as it relates to Nebraska, we can see that while Trump won the state as a whole, Joe Biden was still able to win one electoral vote from the state, further diluting the vote for Trump.
While it wouldn’t change the election results thanks to Donald Trump’s political weakness and unpopularity, it still plays a role in weakening his chances. A 305 to 233 electoral count is still a victory for Biden in the 2020 election, even if Nebraska went completely for the former President. However, that is not the case in this election.
In a hypothetical race between Vice President Harris and former President Trump, a shift in Nebraska would be significant for the simple that this election is going to be close. Assuming that Harris and Trump hold onto the key swing states they need to stay competitive and the Nebraska move was successful, there would be a serious problem namely, that neither candidate would have enough electoral votes to become the president-elect.
Under the current electoral system, Harris only needs to win three swing states: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. This is because Democrats are likely to gain one more electoral vote from Nebraska. However, if the GOP effort had been successful, Democrats would be one vote short and so would Donald Trump. This scenario would send the election to the House of Representatives, which would decide who goes to the White House, and the Senate would decide who becomes Vice-President.
Such a scenario is exceptionally unlikely under our current electoral system and count. The last time this happened was in the election of 1800 between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr, with Jefferson becoming president. However, if this were to happen, it is almost certain Trump would become the next president as the GOP controls the House. However, thanks to the extreme nature of the proposed rule in Nebraska and the backlash to it, this will almost certainly not happen.
Why Talk About This?
While these hypothetical scenarios are rare and it seems unlikely that the GOP effort to turn Nebraska into a winner-take-all state will go any further, it is important to talk about this for several reasons. While elections have rules and protections in place, those protections are set by precedents and statutes.
Said statutes and precedents are controlled, influenced, and upheld by powerful people in both the state legislatures and in the judiciary. It is incredibly important for people to not only pay attention to the presidency but also the political figures up and down the ballot, as well as the figures on the state level that can influence these decisions.
If there is anything that can be taken from this situation it is that every American should keep their eye on their leaders, both on the federal and state level. If we are to improve our political system and the nation as a whole, we must endeavor to remain aware of the actions of our leaders. We owe it to ourselves.
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Originally published at https://theprogressiveamerican.com on September 25t, 2024.