The Midterms: Danger for the GOP
The combined impact of polling and a special election in Tennessee suggest a painful path for the GOP in 2026.
The GOP is in danger, and a victory in a Tennessee special election serves as a major warning about why. Despite currently holding a trifecta in government and winning a key special election, Republicans are facing a disturbing reality: they will likely lose the midterms, and it won’t be pretty.
What’s Happening in Tennessee?
On Tuesday, the Republican candidate, Matt Van Epps, defeated the Democratic candidate, Aftyn Behn, in the last congressional special election of this cycle. The election in the 7th congressional district should be a good sign for Republicans, as it is another seat they have secured. However, the mere act of winning an election doesn’t necessarily mean a strong showing for a party more generally. Rather, the degree to which a party’s candidate wins an election can indicate electoral vulnerability for the party at large.
What Does This Mean?
Looking at the 7th district race, it is increasingly clear that the GOP underperformed. Van Epps beat Behn by an estimated 9 percentage points, a single-digit victory that is especially shocking given Trump won this district by 22 points in 2024. Trump’s margin of victory in the state write large was even larger, with the President securing 64.2 percent of the state’s vote. The New York Times’ analysis shows that all the counties in the district have shifted toward Democrats, with the two most populous counties, Davidson and Montgomery, shifting by 10 and 20 points, respectively.
As it stands, the issues that Republicans have been attempting to focus on, crime and immigration, have increasingly been overtaken by the economy and cost of living, issues that Trump ran on in 2024. In addition, President Trump’s approval rating has begun to decline significantly. The New York Times polling average has him at 41 percent approval, one of the lowest levels since January. A recent Gallup poll found that Trump’s approval dropped to 36 percent, with 60 percent of Americans disapproving of his job performance as President. Among independents, who approved of Trump by 46 percent in January, Trump currently has a low 25 percent approval rating. That is an abysmal decrease so early in his presidency.
While not a guarantee of Republican electoral failure in 2026, or even a sign of Democratic success, Republicans can’t afford to alienate independents. If they are unable to improve public opinion among independents, the GOP’s chances of holding onto the House, the Senate, or both decrease significantly. Any decrease in Trump’s approval is a warning sign to the GOP, not only because they have tied themselves so thoroughly to Trump, but also because his presence as the de facto head of the Republican Party means any negative feelings directed towards him could and likely will be applied to other GOP candidates.
While it remains to be seen, the current landscape is not looking promising for the GOP, and they only have themselves to blame.
References
Cappelletti, Joey, and Meg Kinnard. 2025. “Republicans Emerge Victorious and Anxious after Tennessee Special Election.” The Associated Press. https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/republicans-brace-for-tough-midterms-after-tennessee-special-election/ar-AA1RDQtR?ocid=BingNewsSerp (December 3, 2025).
Daniel, Annie, Jon Huang, Ruth Igielnik, Jasmine C. Lee, Alex Lemonides, Jonah Smith, Albert Sun, and Rumsey Taylor. 2025. “President Trump’s Approval Rating: Latest Polls.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/polls/donald-trump-approval-rating-polls.html (December 3, 2025).
Goldmacher, Shane. 2025a. “Elections Show Trump’s Edge on the Economy Slipping.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/11/05/us/politics/trump-elections-economy-inflation.html (December 3, 2025).
Goldmacher, Shane. 2025b. “What Tennessee Revealed About the G.O.P.’s Trump Trap in the Midterms.” The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/03/us/politics/tennessee-special-election-trump-midterms.html (December 3, 2025).
Shepard, Steve. 2025. “Tennessee Election Results 2024: Live Map - Races by County - POLITICO.” https://www.politico.comundefined (December 3, 2025).
“Tennessee Seventh Congressional District Special Election Results 2025: Behn vs. Van Epps.” 2025. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/12/02/us/elections/results-tennessee-us-house-7-special.html (December 3, 2025).
Thomson-Deveaux, Amelia, Josh Boak, and Linley Sanders. 2025. “Economy Dominated Other Issues in 2025 Elections, Poll Finds | AP News.” The Associated Press. https://apnews.com/article/economy-issues-exit-poll-election-2025-ccd2cab49e6f7d6b310173d70ce570f8 (December 3, 2025).