Harris Leading in Pennsylvania: Election Update
After a long-standing tie, Harris has seemingly taken the lead in a key state she needs to win.
After a long-standing tie, Harris has seemingly taken the lead in a key state she needs to win.

Harris’ momentum may finally be breaking through. After an extensive period of neck and neck polling, and it is still very close, Vice-President Harris may finally be getting the edge she needs to beat former President Trump. While Harris has previously done well in states such as Michigan and Wisconsin, it appears that Harris is on track to take Pennsylvania.
All Eyes on Pennsylvania
While states such as North Carolina, Arizona and Georgia have gotten much of the attention and have shown some potential for the Harris campaign, it has been increasingly clear that the election will likely be decided in the key states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. When Harris entered into the race, I speculated that the most likely outcome would be a race for the Midwestern states and the rust belt. With under 60 days left in the election, it is becoming increasingly clear that such a prediction is holding strong.
While The Washington Post has argued that Harris was leading Trump by 2 points, other analyses have suggested that it was much closer. Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the UVA Center for Politics puts all the swing states as toss-ups, suggesting that the states are unlikely to shift one way or the other soon.
Hesitation Turns to Confirmation
The New York Times wasn’t so generous to the former President, putting Pennsylvania as a tie all the way to September 11th of this year. In addition, the former President has been trailing Harris in their national polling.
However, with the weak debate performance by Trump and a strong showing by Vice-President Harris, early signs in the polls have shown some momentum for Harris, and that momentum has seemingly put the Vice-President ahead in Pennsylvania by two points in their polling averages.
More recent polling has also shown significant improvements for Harris. A recent Suffolk poll conducted among 500 likely Pennsylvania voters showed the Vice-President leading the former President by 3 points. While within the margin of error, the poll is consistent with larger momentum in other states, such as North Carolina, which has also shown support for the Vice-President. Last week, a Quinnipiac poll showed Harris leading Trump by 3 points in North Carolina, a state that has consistently gone for the GOP over the last several elections.
While it is far from a forgone conclusion, the momentum thus far seems to be working in Harris’ favor and if her polling in Pennsylvania holds, it could send her all the way to the White House.
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Originally published at https://theprogressiveamerican.com on September 16th, 2024.