Donald Trump is in Trouble: The Race So Far
With the momentum now shifting toward Vice-President Kamala Harris, Trump’s bid for the White House becomes more difficult
With the momentum now shifting toward Vice-President Kamala Harris, Trump’s bid for the White House becomes more difficult

The Trump campaign is not going well. What was once a race that seemed almost guaranteed Trump victory, with President Joe Biden struggling to counter Trump’s challenge effectively, has been altered entirely by the arrival of Kamala Harris. With his momentum halted, Trump is facing a painful realization: he could lose yet another election.
The Race Has Shifted
When Joe Biden last challenged Trump, he failed to deliver the momentum to beat Trump. His performance in their first debate-which was nothing short of disastrous-sent a clear sign that an alternative to Biden was necessary. Before long, Trump faced a new opponent in Kamala Harris, with Biden quickly endorsing the Vice-President as the presumptive nominee. It wasn’t long before she quickly secured the delegates necessary to become the nominee earlier this month. Polls soon began to show a shift in the race, and while initially Harris’ gains seemed to be a bump, signs began to appear showing her eliminating Trump’s lead.
Since Biden dropped out, a clear and present shift has occurred. Whereas FiveThirtyEight last had President Biden trailing his predecessor by 3.2 percent, with some polls showing Trump leading by as much as 5 points, the former President’s chances have taken a turn for the worse. Currently, FiveThirtyEight has Donald Trump trailing Harris by 2.9 percent, with one Emerson poll finding Harris leading nationally by 4 points. Of the more than 20 polls that FiveThirtyEight collected for its average, only 2 had Trump ahead. Neither of these polls showed Trump ahead by much, with Trump only leading by 1 and 2 points, respectively.
FiveThirtyEight isn’t the only one noticing such a change. The New York Times poll tracker has Harris consistently leading Trump since August 6th. Trump is facing increased momentum from a younger candidate with a running mate he has failed to attack adequately and an increasingly tight campaign timeline. To say that Trump’s edge is gone is an understatement. He doesn’t have an edge at all.
Harris Gains Momentum
As I noted in my video responding to Harris’ campaign announcement, the Vice-President doesn’t need to challenge Trump in states such as Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia to win the election. That remains true, as Harris taking Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin would get her the electoral votes she needs to win. However, Harris has shown strength in swing states such as Arizona and Georgia.
While the New York Times polling average shows Trump leading Harris by 2 percent in Georgia, Trump’s campaign has seen its lead decline from where it was a few before. On July 24th, Trump led Harris by nearly 5 points, beyond the margin of error in most polls. A similar pattern has occurred in Arizona, with the former President’s advantage of nearly 6 points on July 25th dropping to a mere 2 points.
Trump is not merely losing ground in the states he needs to deny Harris to win; he is losing ground that he simply can’t afford to lose. A recent Cook Political Report survey has shown Trump bleeding even more support, both in the environment of a head-to-head race and in a three-way race with RFK JR. In the seven key states that Cook surveyed, Trump led in only 1 state. Harris led in 5, with Georgia being a tie in both versions of the race. Trump needs to turn the race around, or his last chance at the Presidency could turn to ash.
Final Thoughts
While polls are merely snapshots in time, the current situation is far from ideal for the Trump campaign. Vice President Harris is outspending the former President, and the generic congressional ballot shows Democrats slightly more preferred than Republicans, though not by a massive margin. Combine the aforementioned momentum with improving favorable ratings for the Vice President and stagnant ratings for Trump, and it becomes clear that Trump is the one who will have to push for ground rather than the challenger for which he failed to prepare. He can continue to hold onto his personal attacks as much as he likes, but thus far, it hasn’t done him much good, and I doubt it will change anything going forward.
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Originally published at http://theprogressiveamerican.com on August 16, 2024.